Bitcoin bulls still defending the $30,000 mark, the summer will be decisive

Bitcoin bends but does not break. That could be the adage of the last fortnight in the cryptocurrency market. However, the technical situation remains poorly oriented, with sellers dominating since the beginning of July. Bitcoin is down 5% in a week and is hovering around €26,300 ($31,000) on July 21. On July 20, the price momentarily fell below $30,000.

But it is important to note that the market is experiencing its lowest volatility in over a year, with small price swings. This market cycle is expected to end by the end of the month with an explosion of volatility with a strong price movement. The current technical configuration of the market would tip the odds in favor of a bearish exit, but other statistics show instead a possible accumulation phase. As long as the support between €23,000 and €23,800 ($27,000 and $28,000) holds, the continuation of the long-term uptrend remains possible.

• According to CoinGecko, the market capitalization has largely fallen in two weeks and is now below 1300 billion, against 1520 on July 7.

• Bitcoin’s dominance rises slightly, to 44.7% market share from 42.9% two weeks ago.

• The best performance of the most capitalized cryptocurrencies can be attributed to NEM with +16% over a week.

• We note that since the crash day of May 19, large wallets (holding at least 1000 bitcoins) have stopped selling. They have been in a wait-and-see phase for two months. So they are not the ones who are directly exerting the downward pressure that we have been observing for weeks on the market. We have also noticed a slight increase in the number of these wallets in the last few days, which may suggest a gradual accumulation by large investors.

• Similarly, miners are still sending very few bitcoins to the exchanges, compared to the flow we saw earlier this year. They don’t seem to have any intention of selling at this price.

• The sentiment of individual investors has never been as negative as it has been in recent days. Fear is predominant, and has been for weeks. A phenomenon that has rarely been observed before. A feeling of fear that becomes too extreme can be considered as a contrarian indicator: that is, it is possible that we are close to the end of this correction and a price rebound.

In summary: we are potentially at interesting price levels for long-term investment. The price rebound observed in recent hours is encouraging. Nevertheless, we should remain cautious and not overexpose ourselves to the market too soon, in case the downtrend continues. We see this in our detailed technical analysis:

We invite you to discover our video analysis (in french and dated July 20):

Bitcoin (BTC)

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Buy / Wait

• Bitcoin is down 5% on the week and is trading around €26,300 ($31,000) this July 21. Still with very low volatility and no volume, the price again made a few hours’ foray below $30,000, before rebounding. As long as the support between €22,100 and €23,000 ($27,000 and $28,000) holds, and the price does not end days below it, the current levels are interesting for long-term investment.

• On the other hand, if you think you’re already too exposed to the market, or if you want to minimize your risk, you’ll have to wait until the Bitcoin price rises above the €28,900 to €30,500 ($34,500 to $36,500) range to get a buy signal. In this way, you protect yourself from a further decline which, in turn, would seriously damage the long-term uptrend. It is important to wait for a strong price explosion with significant volume before drawing a conclusion on the next market direction.

Ethereum (ETH)

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Buy / Wait

• Ethereum (ETH) is losing 3.5% over a week to trade around €1,620 ($1,900) on July 21. The situation is similar to Bitcoin, with more volatility. The price zone between €1,530 and 1,610 ($1,800 and $1,900) is a primary support for Ethereum. It is an interesting buying zone for long-term investments. On the other hand, if the price of Ether falls further and ends days below this threshold, it will be a sell signal announcing a deterioration of the trend. Eventually, the $1,400 level will be able to support the price, but this will depend on the strength of the downtrend.

• For those who wish to take little risk, we must wait for the price of Ether to break above the resistance located between €1,800 and €1,880 ($2,200 and $2,300). This will be a buy on breakout signal with a high probability that we will start a new significant bullish wave on Ethereum.

Aave

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Buy

• Aave is down 10% this week to €210 ($245) on July 21. Nevertheless, it is one of the altcoins that are holding up well in this rather difficult phase in the market. After a rebound that started at the end of June, the price has corrected back to the $210-$220 area, which remains an interesting buying zone and is causing the price to rebound today. The same principle applies to those who have not yet entered Aave and who want to minimize risk: it is better to wait for the price to clearly break through the $300 level before buying and giving oneself the chance to have confirmation of a return to a more sustainable uptrend.

Tops & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)

Tops

1- NEM : +16%
2- DASH : +14%
3- Leo Token (LEO) : +4%

Flops

1- Theta Network (THETA) : -20%
2- Tezos (XTZ) : -17%
3- NEO : -16,3%

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