$42,000: the key resistance to break for Bitcoin?

The situation is easing in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has been rebounding nicely over the past week, rising nearly 20% in seven days to trade around €33,200 ($40,000) on June 16. However, we will see in the detailed technical analysis that the price has returned to a key level, with the $42,000 (€34,600) resistance to be crossed to set a more bullish tone. The $30,000 support, which held during the heavy fall of May 19, also remains decisive for the preservation of the underlying uptrend.

Another important point: Bitcoin seems to be leading the market again since the bounce off the $30,000 mark. It has been outperforming altcoins in recent days, the exact opposite of what was seen between February and early May. Bitcoin’s dominance in the overall market has been rising recently. If a new uptrend is confirmed, it is therefore possible that Bitcoin will be the first to return to its record high prices. This is a market condition that should be taken into account when balancing your portfolio.

We also notice that, now that the price is moving away from $30,000, the news flow is becoming more positive. The Elon Musk saga continues, with Musk stating that Tesla may finally accept Bitcoin payments again if mining becomes "at least 50% green". A recent survey in the United States shows that professional traders are relatively optimistic about the continuation of the bull market and want to increase the share of cryptoassets in their portfolios in majority. In addition, Goldman Sachs wants to get into Ethereum trading.

On the altcoins side, the situation remains more febrile for most of them, with more timid rebounds. For example, we are seeing a price contraction on Ethereum and a much less impressive rebound than Bitcoin this week. On the other hand, assets like Matic or Solana are decorrecting slightly, and offering interesting performances.

Finally, on the macroeconomic front, we still note the decorrelation between the traditional markets and the cryptoasset market. Indeed, the US stock markets are on record levels and investors seem to adhere to the speeches of the central banks which declare that the inflation we are currently experiencing will only be temporary. Many of them are nevertheless waiting for the speech of the American central bank which will be held this June 16 on the next orientations of its monetary policy.

• According to CoinGecko, the market capitalization has risen to over 1700 billion, compared to 1600 billion last week.

• Bitcoin’s dominance is finally rising again, to 44% market share from 41.6% last week.

• The best performance of the top 50 is attributed to AMP with +85% over one week.

We invite you to discover our video analysis (in french and dated from June 15):

Bitcoin (BTC)

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Hold / Partial profit taking

• Bitcoin is up a good 20% on the week, and is trading around €33,200 ($40,000) on June 16. As we said last week, we haven’t seen a clear takeover by sellers, and the €24,600-€26,200 ($30,000-$32,000) area was an interesting place to buy.

• The price is currently at the top of our range, around €33,200/$34,600 ($40,000/$42,000), an area where we recommend taking small partial profits, in case the sellers take over now. 42,000 remains an important threshold. If it is broken to the upside, prices should quickly move to between €36,300 and €39600 ($44,000 and $48,000). If this scenario unfolds, we will update the analysis as this is another key area where sellers will attempt to regain control.

• However, let’s not totally rule out the possibility of a recovery by sellers in the current zone. The price zones between €24,700 and €28,800 ($30,000 and $35,000) and then in the worst case between €22,100 and €23,000 ($27,000 and $28,000) remain the last interesting areas to make long-term purchases.

Ethereum (ETH)

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Buy on support

• Ethereum’s (ETH) volatility is still shrinking compared to Bitcoin and its performance is less. The asset only gained 1% over a week to trade around €2,100 ($2,550) on June 16. It is still trading in a wide range that now extends from €1,480 to €2,460 ($1,800 to $3,000).

• The trend is thus rather neutral but we remain, in the long term, on potentially interesting zones to make purchases. There is little change: the middle of this range is still causing price rebounds, and the area between €1,800 and 1,880 ($2,200 and $2,300) is a good place to do some buying. If the situation deteriorates further, buying the bottom of the range between $1,800 and $1,900 remains favourable, provided of course that the price reacts minimally to its contact. Conversely, the top of the range, in the price area between €2,460 and €2,750 ($3,000 and $3,350), remains an area for taking partial profits.

Polkadot (DOT)

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Wait

• Polkadot (DOT) benefited this week from a positive announcement regarding its addition to an exchange platform. The asset is up 12% this week to trade around €19.90 ($24) on June 16. However, Polkadot’s price is currently stuck between a potentially interesting buying zone: the $20 to $22 area, and a resistance that was a support earlier in the year: the $27 to $30 level. This level could again reject the price downwards. It is therefore advisable either to wait for the price to return to between $20 and $22 before buying, or to wait for a clear break of $30 before buying at the time of the confirmation of a bullish wave.

Tops & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)

Tops

1- Quant (QNT) : +88%
2- AMP: +84%
3- Chiliz (CHZ): +38%

Flops

1- Internet Computer (ICP) : -28%
2- SUSHI : 13%
3- Theta (TFUEL) : -22%

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