Bitcoin over the $8000 mark, a make-or-break time

With the end of the month in sight and the halving of Bitcoin in about ten days, the next few weeks promise to be exciting in the crypto market. On April 23, Bitcoin broke a major resistance at €6,600 ($7,200). We had said that this would be a buy signal that would pave the way for the €7,400 ($8,000). The price is there now, with Bitcoin gaining 21% over a week and trading around €7,700€ ($8,200). This is a potential reversal zone compared to the last phase of decline we experienced between mid-February and mid-March. It wouldn’t be surprising that some market players look for sales here, unless the fomo is already taking over the market…

Altcoins are not to be left out, in a market where all the cryptocurrencies remain globally correlated and where Bitcoin is leading the way. Ethereum (ETH) performed well with +24% in seven days. Assets such as Tezos (XTZ) or Cardano (ADA) are performing above 30%. Less capitalized Altcoins such as Hive or Digibyte have stratospheric performances of +300% and 87% respectively. The end of April therefore ends in the green.

But beware, the correlation between the crypto market and the equity markets remains very strong. The S&P500 index is also in a potential reversal zone, all in a special economic and financial context. In view of the latest market movements, if the stock markets start to fall again, they risk dragging the crypto market down. Analysis.

• According to CoinGecko, market capitalization is up sharply to $240 billion, up from $201 billion seven days ago.

• Bitcoin dominance remains stable at around 63%.

• Cardano (ADA) offers the best performance of the week in the top 20: +44%.

• The volumes of the CME Bitcoin futures contracts have been exploding lately. The total volume has even exceeded $500 million in one day. Institutional interest seems to be materializing.

We invite you to discover our full analysis in video (recorded on april 28, in french) :

Bitcoin (BTC)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Partial profit taking

• Nice 21% increase over the week for Bitcoin. For anyone who bought Bitcoin on our last identified support levels (on the $5,800 or $6,500) or even lower, we recommend taking partial profits. Last week, we advised you to wait before taking a position on Bitcoin.

• The resistance of the €6600, ($7200) was broken and the price quickly moved, as we expected, into the €7,300 ($8,000) zone. We must remain vigilant in this zone which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the big February/March drop, and also to a Fibonacci extension level (refer to the video for details). To sum up, this is an interesting zone for sellers. If we observe any reversal signals in this zone, the price should first return to the last support formed, i.e. the €6600, ($7,200) zone.

• We are only taking partial profits at this stage as it is also possible that the market will enter a bullish excess and break out of the $8,000 range and then target the $7,800 ($8,500) zone. In this scenario, we will start buying again when the price offers retracement.

Ethereum (ETH)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Keep

• Ethereum takes full advantage of the rise of the last few days to win 24% over one week. ETH quoted around 190€ (209$) on April 29. A good progression from the supports we had identified at $115 and then $150.

• There is still a bullish potential on Ethereum to reach the really resistant chartist zone, located around €200 ($225). This price level also corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the big February/March drop. We will therefore have to think about taking partial profits when the price reaches this zone. But for the moment we are holding.

• Be careful, the scenario of an immediate reversal cannot be excluded. If Bitcoin starts to show signs of weakness, it is very likely that Ethereum will follow it in its bearish retracement. In that case, you’ll need to watch the chartist levels of $160 and then $140 ($180 and then $160) to act as a support and a rebound in the price.

Tezos (XTZ)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Partial profit taking

• Tezos (XTZ) continues to impress on the market, up 29% in one week and trading at €2.56 ($2.80) on April 29.

• The XTZ price is also coming in on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the big February/March decline. This price zone between €2.50 and €2.65 ($2.70 and $2.90) should catch the interest of sellers. We therefore advise to take partial profits, given the impressive rise traversed by XTZ in recent weeks. If the reversal signals are confirmed, the price should return to the pivotal range of $1.90 to $2.05 ($2.10 to $2.20), which will then be a preferred price level for a rebound and a resumption of the uptrend.

• It is not impossible, although less likely, that the uptrend will gain strength and the price will break the resistance of the 2.65€ ($2.90). In such a case, we will try to position ourselves on price retracements when buying.

Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)

Tops

1- Hive (ZEC) : +300%
2- Digibyte (XTZ) : +87%
3- Cardano (ADA) : +44%

Flops

1- LEo Token (LEO) : +0,3%
2- ZCash (ZEC) : +7,8%
3- Chainlink (LINK) : +8,9%

Latest crypto news

• Data from currency exchange websites indicates that Americans are using government assistance checks to buy Bitcoins. Several platforms have seen their volumes increase, and have received payments that exactly match the value of the checks. With the halving of Bitcoin on the horizon, some see this as an opportunity for prices to rise sharply.

• No less than 72 financial institutions have registered with the Chinese government to offer services based on blockchain solutions. These will be used primarily in trade settlement account, supply chain management, finance and other financial sectors. China’s tech giants are also following the trend and using technology to provide financial services to their users. These include Baidu, Tancent, Alibaba, JD…

• McDonald’s, Starbuck and Subway are ready to test the digital currency of the Chinese Central Bank. They are among a total of 19 companies selected to participate in this test on small transactions. A screenshot of a test version of an application developed by the Chinese Central Bank featuring the digital Yuan leaked last week. Things are speeding up.

• The Coinbase exchange announces the creation of oracles to provide real-time market prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is expected that the values provided will be particularly reliable, since they will be based directly on the transactions of the Coinbase Pro platform. This project could cause serious problems for Chainlink, whose oracles form the core of the business model.

• Things are also progressing in Argentina. The Central Bank is currently testing a new compensation system based on blockchain technology. Of course, the blockchain systems used by central banks have little in common with public cypto-systems such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, which are emerging as alternative and transparent financial systems. But this is a validation of the underlying technology at the highest levels.

• The ETH price on the Grayscale investment fund is $975, about 5 times more than the official Ethereum price, proof that there is a very strong demand among institutional investors. In fact, Grayscale bought 756,000 ETH this year,  48% of the mined ETHs.
  
• Bitcoin futures contracts at CME multiply their volume by 5 in one day, exceeding $500 million. More generally, the market for derivatives on cryptocurrencies is growing very fast, exceeding $2 trillion in the first quarter of 2020. Bitcoin futures contracts account for 78% of this market, with the Huobi platform leading the way.

• The Securitize company is launching a peer-to-peer market place for Tokenized financial securities, also known as Security tokens. Named Instant Access, Securitize explains that trades can be made within a regulated framework without putting an intermediary between users. Project to be followed closely.

• Tether printed 960 million units during April, in response to strong investor demand. The Stablecoin now operates mainly on Ethereum, and contributes to the high valuation of the transactions on this blockchain. Since the beginning of the year, Tether has "printed" more than $2 billion units, reaching 6.3 billion.

• 20000 validators joined the Ethereum 2.0 project to validate transactions in less than two days, on the new Proof of Stake model. For the moment, it remains a test blockchain, but the craze is already there

• The number of smart contracts deployed on Ethereum increased by 75% in one month, reaching almost 2 million contracts per month. Proof that development on this blockchain is increasingly active.

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