Technical analysis

Will history repeat itself on cryptocurrencies?

Julien Moretto – 11 Sep 2019

The consolidation that began at the end of June continues on Bitcoin, which is up by about 5% in one week, trading around €9,100 ($10,000) on September 11. Volatility and volumes are at their lowest level in months. If the €8,200 ($9,100) support holds until the end of this consolidation phase, then the odds are high that Bitcoin will continue to rise as in previous bull markets. The altcoins are currently waiting for this next major movement on Bitcoin.

According to CoinMarketCap, market capitalisation is declining slightly to $258 billion from $268 billion last week. The Bitcoin dominance decreased slightly and fell back below 70% of the cryptocurrency market capitalisation.

Some marketplaces experience an average volume that has never been so low since 2016. A statistic that may indicate that we are at the dawn of a more sustainable bull market. Altcoins have regained a little bit of interest this week, like Cosmos (ATOM) which gained up to 50% at the beginning of the week.

We invite you to discover our complete analysis in video (in french):

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin chart

Coinhouse recommendation: 
Buy on break up signal

Our recommendation does not change from last week for investors with a medium-to-long-term perspective: as long as the Bitcoin chart is in this consolidation pattern, we must be patient. The levels to be monitored for entries are the following ones: the support that has held for months, located from €8,200 to €8,400 ($9,100 to $9,400), the bearish trendline located around €9600 ($10,700) as well as the horizontal resistance at $11,000 (€9900).

A clear breakout of these different levels, with a strong increase in volumes, will have to be observed before any action can be taken. A bear break of the €8,200 ($9,100) will be a sell signal. On the contrary, a bull break that clearly goes above €9,900 ($11,000) will be a buy signal.

The oscillators have just turned down on the daily timeframe, suggesting that sellers will have the upper hand in the coming days. The launch of Bakkt’s Bitcoin Futures contracts, still scheduled for September 23, could be a catalyst to put an end to this consolidation phase.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum chart

Coinhouse recommendation: 
Buy

Ethereum was more bullish this week. It is stable, still around €162 ($178) on September 11. Our medium-term buy zone from €145 to €160 ($160 to $180) remains favourable for accumulation. Sellers seem to have more and more difficulty pushing the price of Ether lower.

But it would be preferable to wait for the volumes to increase again. The price going above the 50-day moving average, which is just below $200, and then above the €212 ($236) resistance would confirm a longer-term bullish recovery on Ethereum. The bear break of €145 ($160) will still be a sell signal to target a lower buy zone, around €122 ($135).

Cosmos (ATOM)

Atom chart

Coinhouse recommendation: 
Wait

ATOM, which is the token of the Cosmos project, has only been listed on the main marketplaces since April 2019. Even though, this crypto has potential and presents an interesting situation. Within a clear downtrend since June 2019, ATOM is up 21% this week. He was even the best performer of the top 50 at the beginning of the week.

The asset bounced on the €1,75 (psychological level of $2) support on September 6. It gained nearly 50%. This uptrend stopped against the 50-day moving average on the $3 resistance.

Two possibilities for buy entries now on ATOM. Either the chart quickly rises again above the 50-day moving average so the $3 break is a buy signal. Either the correction is deeper and it will be necessary to monitor how deep the pullback will be. If it retraced about 50 to 60%, buy entries can be considered around $2.30.

Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)


Tops

1- Augur (REP) : +24%
2- Cosmos (ATOM) : +21%
3- EOS : +12%


Flops

1- Lisk (LSK) : -11,88%
2- Decred (DCR) : -11%
3- NEM (XEM) : -9,66%

Hot crypto news

Facebook is refocusing on the West by excluding the Yuan from Libra. The social networking giant recently stated that the Yuan will not be part of the Libra’s basket of currencies in the short term. China has always held protectionist positions on technological products from the West. Facebook seems to have preferred to earn points with the USA than to try its luck in the short term with the Yuan, a strategic choice.

The NASDAQ officially lists an index (DEFX) related to “Decentralized Finance” (DeFI), a news that could please the Ethereum ecosystem because DeFI is the most popular sector at the moment. However, the community remains doubtful about the index created by “experts”. MakerDAO is present at 25%, 0x and REP are at 20%. But also VEO, an asset unknown to the general public, unrelated to Ethereum, listed on a platform with a sulphurous reputation (HitBTC) and a virtually non-existent volume. This outsider represents one fifth of the DEFX basket and causes a total misunderstanding of the market.

The stablecoin giant Tether, attacks the Asian markets, the Bitfinex firm launches the stablecoin CNHT based on the Chinese Yuan. Tether continues to affirm his interest in Ethereum by making the smart-contract blockchain the platform of the CNHT. Tether currently represents more than $1.5B$ on the Ethereum network and an average of 15% of transactions on the network.

VanEck Securities and SolidX Management, which managed to list a Bitcoin ETF last week in a legal vacuum, did not get the market’s approval. After a week of availability on the markets, subscriptions to the fund are barely reaching $41K. While it is still early to talk about failure, the product’s beginnings are particularly modest.

If you have a Keybase account, you may receive Stellar Lumens (XLM) The alternative to Ripple Labs XRP product has opened an “Airdrop” period open to Keybase users. 2B of XLM in total will be regularly distributed. The Stellar lumens foundation is familiar with the airdrops it regularly performs to draw attention to its project.

Lightning news:

Investors’ attention is drawn to the fact that the content of the articles does not constitute financial advice.
Investing in cryptoassets involves a risk of total capital loss.
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