Technical analysis

Will Bitcoin’s halving trigger a new bull market?

Julien Moretto – 15 Apr 2020

Less volatile week on the crypto market. The price of Bitcoin is in a range between €6,050 and €6,600 ($6,600 and $7,200). For the past few days we have been observing a close battle between buyers and sellers. On April 15th Bitcoin was down 6% over a week, posting a price around $6,700.

On the Altcoin side, the correlation with Bitcoin remains strong. However, we see a stronger decrease for Bitcoin cash and an impressive 18% increase for ChainLink.

The situation on all markets remains difficult to read. While the general rebound continues this week, deteriorated corporate results are expected in the next 15 days. The risks of a bearish reversal are increasing. On Bitcoin, bullish predictions are multiplying one month away from the halving, despite the fact that the price is currently in a zone of indecision. Let’s analyze together which price levels will be decisive.

  • According to CoinGecko, market capitalization is down slightly to $196 billion, down from $208 billion seven days ago.
  • Bitcoin’s market dominance remains stable at 64%.
  • Chainlink (LINK) offers the week’s best performance in the top 20: + 18%.
  • The central banks of the G20 countries have received a report calling for a ban on stablecoins.

We invite you to discover our full analysis in video (in french, recorded on april 14):

Bitcoin (BTC)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Wait

  • Following the profit-taking we were advising last week, Bitcoin made a pullback and priced back to support between €6,000 and €6,050 ($6,500 and $6,600). In this zone, there is nothing to be done, we are witnessing a balanced fight between buyers and sellers.
  • To maintain a bullish sentiment, the price must first return to a balanced zone around €6,500 ($7,100). But it is above all the breakout of the €6,600 ($7,200) resistance that will give a buy signal. If this scenario occurs, the targets for the rise will be around $7,200 ($8,000), a price zone corresponding to 0.618 of Fibonacci retracement of the previous downtrend on the daily timeframe.
  • Conversely, if the price breaks the €6,000 ($6,500) support, it will be a sell signal and the price will take a bearish turn on the daily time unit. Until we exit this range, it is advisable to wait for the market to give the direction of its next impulsive move.

Ethereum (ETH)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Buy

  • Ethereum is down 4.3% over one week, to around 146€ ($160) on April 15.
  • The current configuration is conducive to purchases on Ethereum. Indeed, the support of 140 to 146€ (150 to 160$) used to be a resistance. The objective of this purchase can bring us to the €200 ($225) zone, which corresponds to 0.5 of Fibonacci retracement of the decline since June 2019 on Ethereum.
  • This scenario is invalidated if the 140€ ($150) support is broken down. This will be a sell signal and the daily trend will also become bearish on ethereum.

Chainlink (LINK)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Wait

  • Chainlink (LINK) is much more bullish this week and gains 18%, to stabilize around €3 ($3.30) on April 15.
  • Looking back, we can see that the price of Chainlink oscillates in a wide range between $1.50 and $4.60. A few weeks ago, we were advising people to start buying on Chainlink when the price was close to the $1.40 support ($1.50). Now, it is more prudent to wait for the price to take its next direction as it is located in the optimal reversal zone between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
  • To enter the purchase, it is better to either wait for a retracement on the €2.55 ($2.75) level or wait for the 3.35€ ($3.60) level to break. It is therefore advisable to wait on Chainlink this week as the price is in the middle of the range, but overall sentiment remains bullish.

Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)


Tops

1- Bitcoin Gold (BTG) : +24,6%
2- Chainlink (LINK) : +19%
3- Binance Coin (BNB) : +5,1%


Flops

1- Bitcoin Cash (BCH) : -11,7%
2- Maker (MKR) : -11,1%
3- Litecoin (LTC) : -8,4%

Latest crypto news

  • Bitcoin Cash had its first Halving on April 8, 2020.
    The BCH issue was halved from BCH 12.5 per block to BCH 6.25 per block. In terms of price, there was a small uptrend, which was quickly absorbed. The computing power dedicated to secure the chain has been divided by three, which makes it much less secure. The reactions on Bitcoin Cash are of course very different from what we can expect on Bitcoin, which halving is scheduled for May 12, 2020. Bitcoin SV also had its halving this week.
  • The Tezos ecosystem grows even more with tzBTC.
    Like a wBTC on Ethereum, tzBTC is a token representing bitcoin on the Tezos blockchain. Of course, the Tezos ecosystem is still very young and there is currently no real application to use bitcoin on Tezos, but one step has been taken. Note that tzBTC is not decentralized. Like wBTC, it relies on centralized conservation methods between different stakeholders.
  • The MakerDAO community has spoken.
    The holders of Vaults (ETH or BAT in the maker contracts) who have suffered financial damage as a result of the particular liquidations of March 12 will be reimbursed for their losses. We don’t know yet if they will be reimbursed in DAI or ETH/BAT. The holders of MKRs have voted 66% in favour of reimbursement.  

Investors’ attention is drawn to the fact that the content of the articles does not constitute investment advice.
Investment in cryptocurrencies carries a risk of total capital loss.
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