Technical analysis

Which trend for cryptocurrencies this summer?

Julien Moretto – 1 Jul 2020

We didn’t have a real explosion of volatility at the end of June in the crypto market. Bitcoin remains above €8,000 ($9,000) and is trading around €8,170 ($9,170) on July 1st, despite a 4.6% decline over a week. A slightly bearish trend has been in place since June 24, but the most important supports are still holding. This stabilization of the price looks more and more like a consolidation preceding a continuation of the uptrend initiated since March 13, 2020. In the short term, price levels are clear as to which of the buyers or sellers will initiate the next trend in the market. Let’s analyse the market.

  • According to CoinGecko, Market capitalization is down to $264 billion from $273 billion seven days ago.
  • Bitcoin’s dominance remains stable at 64% this week.
  • the best performance of the top 50 is signed by the Synthetix (SNX) token with +28% over the week.
  • The new DeFi projects and protocols are booming at the moment, just like Balancer. Coinhouse clients can benefit from the expertise of our teams to find out which projects are of real interest and how to take advantage of them.

We invite you to discover our full analysis in video (recorded on june 30, in french)

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Bitcoin (BTC)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Sell on signal

  • Last week, we were recommending holding Bitcoin positions. This week, we will be more cautious. We’re still holding but ready to sell based on price action. On June 27, sellers tried to push the price below €7,900 ($8,900) but a rebound was quickly observed. Taking a step back, we remain in a large consolidation zone since the beginning of May. Over the long term, this price action tilts the probabilities in favor of a continuation of the uptrend. However, in the short term, sellers still have the upper hand.
  • The bullish scenario: buyers regain the upper hand following the €7,900 ($8,900) rebound on June 27. They first move the price up to the middle of the range at €8,500 ($9,500) and then break the latest market peak at €8,800 ($9,800). It is this break that will confirm a continuation of the uptrend with a high probability that the resistance of the €8,900 ($10,000) will finally be broken. We don’t favor this scenario this week.
  • The bearish scenario: sellers let the price rise to the €8,300 level ($9,300) which corresponds to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the June 23-27 drop. If bearish movements then return to this level, it will be a sell signal with a target level of €7,700 ($8,600) in the first instance. This is our preferred scenario.

Ethereum (ETH)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Hold

  • Ethereum (ETH) loses 5.5% on the week to settle at €202 ($227) on July 1st. But its recent price action is less alarming than on Bitcoin. We will therefore remain neutral this week and hold Ethereum.
  • The bullish scenario: Ethereum’s price continues to consolidate above the €198-210 ($210-225) zone which has become a support. The objective of continuing the rise remains the resistant zone of €245 to €260 ($255 to $275), which corresponds to a previous market peak worked in February. Profit-taking will take place on technical signals at this price level.
  • The bearish scenario: Ethereum’s price struggles to rise above €215 ($232), which corresponds to 0.5 of a Fibonacci retracement of the June 23-27 drop, and is again rejected downwards. If it falls back below the previous resistant level of €200 ($215), it will be a sell signal and we will not try to buy again until the €170 ($180) support.

Ripple (XRP)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Wait

  • Ripple (XRP) also lost 5.5% and is trading at €0.157 ($0.176) on July 1st. Over the past two years, XRP has been in a bearish trend, as shown in the weekly timescale chart. The levels are again very clear and will allow the company to position itself by taking a measured risk.
  • The Bullish Scenario: The price of XRP rebounds to these current levels around €0.16 ($0.18) and the week ends with a price above $0.19. This could be a first buy signal, as the price action indicates a possible trend reversal on the weekly time scale. The most cautious will wait for the price to confirm its rebound and break the previous market peak set last May at $0.217 ($0.232). This will be a stronger buy signal as the price starts to move back to higher highs and lows on the weekly time scale.
  • The bearish scenario: The price of XRP sinks below $0.16 ($0.18) and then breaks the annual support of $0.12 ($0.14). This will then be a strong selling signal.

Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)


Tops

1- Synthetix (SNX) : +28%
2- Bitcoin Gold (BTG) : +19%
3- Leo Token (LEO : +10%


Flops

1- Algorant (ALGO) :-15,6%
2- Theta Network (THETA): -13,9%
3- Bitcoin SV (BSV) : -11,6%

Investors’ attention is drawn to the fact that the content of the articles does not constitute investment advice.
Investment in cryptocurrencies carries a risk of total capital loss.
For more information, please do not hesitate to contact our customer support department.

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