Technical analysis

Bitcoin: will the price drop by the end of February?

Julien Moretto – 19 Feb 2020

Mixed signals this week in the crypto market. While the price of Bitcoin seems to be dropping after hitting €9600 ($10,500), the global trend remains bullish. On the Altcoin side, Ethereum (ETH) and Tezos (XTZ) continue their impressive increases with respectively +18% and +26% over the last seven days.

Even if we must stay cautious regarding the upward volatility of this market, it could be strategic to partially sell some cryptocurrencies that have been bought for a lower price. Let’s analyse together on what signals to rely on and what might be the attractive price levels to then buy back.

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  • According to CoinGecko, market capitalisation remains stable, just under $300 billion.
  • Bitcoin’s dominance moves a little bit in one week: 62.4%, up from 62.7% last week.
  • The two best performances of the week in the top 20 are OKB with +26.7% and Tezos (XTZ) with +26.3%.
  • Five billion dollars. This is the number that has just been exceeded by the sum of open positions on the futures markets linked to cryptocurrencies.

We invite you to discover our full analysis in video (in French and dated from February 18t :

Bitcoin (BTC)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Hold / Buy on correction

  • The last few days seem to show the beginning of a correction in the price of Bitcoin. But nothing is certain at this point. We haven’t made any profit because the price has never really reached our target between €9,600 and €9,900 ($10,500 and $11,100). So we hold the asset for now.
  • We do not sell at the current price, even partially, as the uptrend could continue.
  • However, if a correction on the daily timeframe is confirmed, we target strategic price zones to buy back some bitcoins. The first zone is located between €8300 and €8500 ($9200 and $9400). The second is between €7700 and €7800 ($8500 and $8600). We monitor our RSI and MACD indicators for any signals that would support the relevance of these buybacks.
  • Even though indicators are starting to show signs of running out of steam, the price could still go higher in the coming days on Bitcoin. In that case, we’ll buy the bullish break of the €9,600 ($10,500).

Ethereum (ETH)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Wait

  • The uptrend remains very bullish on Ethereum (ETH): +18% again this week, at €260 ($280) on February 19.
  • Last week, we sold a small portion of our ethers to take some profits. As expected, this sale took place in the area between €230 and €245 ($250 and $270). As the uptrend remains very solid, we are waiting for a stronger daily correction to consider possible buybacks.
  • Two areas seem to be strategic for future acquisitions/reinforcements on Ethereum. At first, the one between €205 and €208 ($220 and $225), then the one between €180 and €183 ($200 and $205). Of course, these buybacks will be conditioned to positive signals on our indicators.

Tezos (XTZ)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Take profit

  • Tezos (XTZ) is one of the best-performing cryptocurrency since the beginning of the year 2020: still +27% in seven days to trade now around €3.45 ($3.70) on February 19.
  • It speaks for itself about Tezos. The price is parabolic on the daily timeframe. But watch out for the formation of a bearish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator. For these reasons, we recommend selling some of the Tezos positions this week, if this hasn’t already been done.
  • We will then wait for a more pronounced correction in the daily timeframe before considering buybacks. We will use Fibonacci retracements to help us do this, once the peak of this upward movement has been determined.

Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)


Tops

1- Siacoin (SC) : + 54,4%
2- OKB : +28%
3- Tezos (XTZ) : +27,7%


Flops

1- Ethereum Classic (ETC): -19%
2- Bitcoin Gold (BTG) : -18,6%
3- Bitcoin SV (BSV) : -16,4%

The latest crypto News

  • Five billion dollars. This is the number that has just been exceeded by the sum of open positions on the futures markets. This new plateau shows that incoming capital is increasing in the crypto asset market. In general, it also announces  a period of high volatility, with sophisticated and institutional investors mitigating the risk on their positions.
  • The blockchain is entering the American presidential campaign. Mike Bloomberg, Democrat candidate, proposes the implementation of a framework for the control of cryptocurrencies. It concerns the regulation of crypto players, ICOs, taxation and consumer protection. In the end, these proposals are quite similar to the current French legislation.
  • Game over for Quorum, JP Morgan’s Blockchain project. The bank had been trying to get rid of this technology for two years already, as it had not met with the expected success. Quorum is a derivative of Ethereum on which 25 people are currently working. The project could be taken over by Consensys.
  • A fault in the IOTA network causes the project to stop completely. It seems that the Trinity portfolio was the target. User funds have been stolen, but we don’t know the exact amount yet. Perhaps the most worrisome is that the development team can stop all transactions at once A new version of the Trinity Portfolio has been released.

Investors’ attention is drawn to the fact that the content of the articles does not constitute investment advice.
Investment in cryptocurrencies carries a risk of total capital loss.
For further information, please do not hesitate to contact our customer support.

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