Bitcoin approaching the $20,000 mark, is it time to sell?
Julien Moretto – 3 Dec 2020
It’s done! or at least partially. Bitcoin surpassed, on some trading platforms, its December 2017 historical high, flirting with the €16,500 ($19,800) mark on November 30. The main cryptocurrency is stable over a week and is trading around €15,800 ($19,100) on December 2, after a week of turbulence. November 26 was indeed an alert day, when Bitcoin suddenly dropped by about 15% in a few hours. The price quickly returned to its highs, but this event should remind us that we are reaching a very uncertain price area.
The price action has been more chaotic in recent days. Without calling into question the powerful bull market in which we have been since last April, we maintain the idea that it is risky to buy large quantities of bitcoins at the current level, at the dawn of a potential market correction that would offer much more interesting buy-backs for investors wishing to optimize their return. We will see in the technical analysis a scenario that would briefly drive the price above $20,000 just before starting a strong correction.
Altcoins remain, for the most part, correlated to Bitcoin fluctuations. Ethereum fails to outperform Bitcoin and stagnates around $600 this week. At the end of this year, Bitcoin has once again emerged as the asset offering the best return on investment with +165% since January 1st, much better than the US stock market and gold, which is perceived as a safe haven.
- According to CoinGecko, market capitalization is fairly stable at $576 billion, up from $580 billion last week.
- Bitcoin’s dominance rose to 61.6% from 60.8% last week.
- The best performance of the top 50 is to be attributed to Aave with +27% over one week.
We invite you to discover our analysis in video (in french and dated from December 1st) :
Hold / Take profits
- Despite the sudden correction, and equally sudden recovery, of the Bitcoin price on November 26, we do not change our recommendation. We consider that this uptrend, which began in early October, is beginning to be overextended, and that the market will need to “breathe”. No new purchases in this price zone therefore. We advise you to take profits if you have not done so in the last few weeks. Otherwise hold the rest of your position.
- Following the sudden correction of November 26, it is possible that we are in a final wave of uptrend which could bring the price in the zone between €16,500 and €16,900 ($19,900 and $20,400). After a quick crossing of the 20,000$ mark, we would then start a weekly correction, which would last this time several days at least, and more likely several weeks. We would then define our price levels for buybacks, but the 2019 weekly top at €11,400 ($13,800) already seems to be an optimal level for medium and long term buying.
Hold / Take profits
- Ethereum (ETH) was not really strong this week, in the sense that it remains highly correlated to Bitcoin and is not able to overperform it. With -2% over one week to rub shoulders with €490 ($595), we change our recommendation slightly this week. If you are quite strongly exposed to Ethereum, it may be wise to take partial profits. Indeed, if Bitcoin starts correcting strongly, Ethereum will be dragged into this correction, even before reaching our initial target of €590/670 ($700/800) to take profits. The area between $440 and $490 will be optimal for medium-term buybacks.
- The price of Ripple (XRP) has calmed down relatively well and is now at €0.51 ($0.61), down 11% over a week. Similarly, we continue to believe that the current price zones are more profit taking opportunities for those who bought lower or those who wish to sell their XRP tokens, as the price has remained for many months at lower price levels than it is now. The 0.55€ ($0.65) zone in particular, then the 0.72€ ($0.86) for the most ambitious, are therefore interesting levels to take profits. If the market corrects, we will look to see if new relevant price zones are forming to buy more serenely.
Tops & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)
1- Aave: +24%
2- Kusama (KSM): +20%
3- NEM (XEM) : 16,5%
1- Crypto.com coin (CRO) : -18,9%
2- Dogecoin (DOGE): -18,4%
3- Bitcoin SV (BSV): -18%
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