Bitcoin: $7,900 to break for a new bull trend
Julien Moretto – 11 Dec 2019
Stable week for Bitcoin, with -0.70% trading at €6,530 ($7,230) on December 11. While major altcoins such as Ethereum are also stable, other ones with poor liquidity have experienced significant losses this week. The market is still waiting for the next clear direction of the Bitcoin price. A cross of €7,100 ($7,900) would be a first step to recreate a short-term bullish sentiment. This week, we take a look at the important price levels and the main news from the crypto market.[passster headline=”This article is for Premium members only” placeholder-text=”Enter your password” instruction=”You have to be a Premium member to access this content
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- According to CoinGecko, market capitalisation is down this week, to $177 billion from $205 billion last week.
- The Bitcoin dominance remains stable at 66.5%.
- Tezos (XTZ) continues his momentum and is the top performer in the top 50 this week with +16%. On the other hand, Matic collapsed and lost 75% on December 10 ! Proof that the leveraged trading offered by some exchanges does not only benefit cryptocurrencies with low liquidity.
- According to Deutsche Bank, cryptocurrency could replace cash by 2030
We invite you to discover our complete analysis in video (in french and dated from December 10):
Buy on signal
- The bounce that occured on November 25 at the €6,000 ($6,500) level seems to be losing momentum. The Bitcoin price is now stucked between a support at €6,400 ($7,100) and a resistance at €7,100 ($7,900). As long as the price remains between these two limits, no additional positions should be taken.
- We will buy on signal if a bullish break of the €7,100 ($7,900) resistance occurs with volumes. The next resistance to watch out for will then be €7,800 ($8,500).
- From a chartist point of view, we can wait for the price to form a “W”. In concrete terms, the price could return to the support at €6,400 ($7,100) before rising again and finally breaking €7,100 ($7,900). The buy signal would be even stronger.
- However, the technical situation is not good and the medium-term trend remains bearish since the end of June. Going below €6,400 ($7,100) will be a first sell signal for the most cautious investors. It will then be likely that the chart will retest the €6,000 ($6,500) area. It is impossible to know if it will act as support again.
- In case of a very bearish scenario, the €6,000 ($6,500) support would not hold and the price would go down at a lower level: on the €5,000 ($5,500) zone, which corresponds to the Fibonacci retracement level 0.786 of the entire 2019 bull trend. Area where the 200-week moving average is currently located, which has never been broken down in the Bitcoin price history. This will be the last support to hold to maintain a long-term bullish bias.
- Ethereum stands at €131 ($145) on December 11th and also loses 1% over the last seven days.
- Another week of waiting on this asset. Despite the good news of a successful hardfork last week, volumes remain low and the price is not giving any signals of a bullish recovery.
- We remain on the scenario of a bullish break of the €160 ($180) level which will give a buy signal on Ethereum, if it is followed by volumes. The price must indeed rebuild its bullish reversal pattern.
- On the contrary, a bear break of the €123 to €127 level ($135 to $140) will indicate a further drop on Ethereum. Price levels between $100 and $125 will then have to be considered.
- Tezos (XTZ) is the best performance of the week in the top 50 with +17% increase, at €1.36 ($3.72).
- During our last analysis at the beginning of November, we specified that Tezos offered a good consolidation figure between the €1 ($1.10) pivot and the €1.20 ($1.30) resistance, and that crossing the €1.20 ($1.30) resistance would be a buy signal.
- That signal was good. We had set a target at €1.40 ($1.50) and the price even went up to €1.50 ($1.60). This level now acts as a new resistance.
- The Tezos chart is now consolidating. We recommend to wait before taking new positions. Either the price returns to the €1.20 ($1.30) pivot and stabilises: it will be a new buying opportunity. Either it consolidates laterally and then breaks up the €1.50 ($1.60) resistance: it will also be a buying opportunity.
- However, if the price drops below €1.20 ($1.30), it will be a sell signal indicating the installation of a much longer range on Tezos.
Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)
1- Tezos (XTZ) : +17%
2- ZCash (ZEC) : +14%
3- Crypto.com coin (CRO) : +11%
1- VeChain (VET): -11%
2- Basic Attention Token (BAT) : -9,4%
3- 0x (ZRX) : -8,1%
Hot crypto news
- The Bank of France wants to experiment with a digital euro.
The Governor of the Bank of France wants to launch an experiment in the first quarter of 2020.
This new form of currency would only be used between commercial banks.
- Ethereum has successfully upgraded through an update called Istanbul.
This is the eighth update of Ethereum, and it went off without a hitch.
Updates include better protection against denial of service attacks, lower transaction costs, and the development of anonymous transactions.
- According to Deutsche Bank, cryptocurrencies could replace cash by 2030.
The current system appears to be weakened and alternatives could gain in adoption, based on the blockchain.
Problems with inflation and transaction control could lead consumers towards these new means of payment.
- HSBC is preparing to move $20 billion in assets to the Blockchain.
The operation is expected to be completed in March 2020.
This concerns assets on private markets, which are not very standardised and of which the bank currently holds 50 billion.
- The European Union warns: no projects like Libra without regulation.
European finance ministers are preparing to ban such projects.
Only projects that are strictly regulated may eventually be accepted.
- 650 million dollars in Ethereum are now being invested in decentralized finance.
This represents 2% of the ETH in circulation.
Two years ago, there were less than ten million of them.
Despite a bearish market , this ecosystem is developing rapidly.
- The Chinese central bank issues $2.8 billion worth of bonds on the blockchain
These bonds correspond to loans made by Chinese SMEs.
The blockchain used is a government-owned project.
The proposed interest rate on the bonds is 3.25%.
- The Chinese central bank will test a state cryptocurrency in two cities.
It puts commercial banks and telecom companies in competition to obtain the most interesting implementation.
The most difficult issue concerns the creation of user wallets and their security.
Investors’ attention is drawn to the fact that the content of the articles does not constitute investment or financial advice.
Investing in cryptocurrencies involves a risk of total capital loss.
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