After the sudden drop suffered by the cryptocurrency market on May 19, June is ending with a majority of investors left wanting more. With a slight variation of -7% over a month, Bitcoin is trading around €29,000 ($35,000) this June 30. The last few weeks have been dominated by fear and doubt, with China’s repressive measures around mining and the crackdown announced by some regulators on the cryptocurrency ecosystem in general or on decentralized finance (DeFi). Yet Bitcoin has been holding the important €25,000 ($30,000) support for a month and a half. We will see in our detailed technical analysis that as long as this price area holds, the Bitcoin purchases that are being made here could prove to be very interesting in the long run.
Several statistics on market sentiment or activity of the largest portfolios tend to confirm that we would be in a new accumulation phase. In other words, the largest investors would be taking advantage of the current price levels to buy, to the detriment of smaller holders who are selling, discouraged by the deteriorated state of the market since mid-May. Beware, however, that despite a nice price reaction since Sunday, June 27, the long-term uptrend will not be confirmed until the price manages to get back above €33,200 to €34,600 ($40,000 to $42,000).
On the altcoins side, volatility is higher, so taking positions in them is always more risky. Most altcoins have suffered more losses than Bitcoin in recent downtrends. But since last Sunday, rebounds have often been stronger. This is the case with Ethereum, which is up 14% for the week, compared to only 8% for Bitcoin. Beware that this is not only temporary. On the other hand, statistics show that the activity of the largest Ethereum wallets is encouraging for a future rise: large holders are not selling their ethers, and the number of ethers on the platforms remains on a very low level, showing that there is no particular panic selling. Price action, especially on bounces, will be important to watch in early July, to see which of Bitcoin or altcoins will generate the best performance.
We are still seeing a decorrelation between the traditional and cryptoasset markets. The US stock market indices are still on historical highs. But beware, resurgences of the pandemic, with the Delta variant in particular, could weaken the continuation of this rise. Moreover, recent statistics highlight a record of overvaluation of stock market indices compared to the true value of their underlying assets.
- According to CoinGecko, the market capitalization rises slightly to 1460 billion, against 1400 last week.
- Bitcoin’s dominance drops back to 44.6% market share from 45.5% last week.
- The best performance of the top 50 can be attributed to Ethereum Classic (ETC) with +61% over one week.
The Coinhouse reccomendation :
Buy on support
- Bitcoin is showing a one-week upward recovery of 8% and is trading around €29,000 ($35,000) as of June 30. The rebounds we saw on June 22 and June 27 are encouraging in the short term for a continued overall rise. Thus, the price zone between €24,600 and €26,200 ($30,000 and $32,000) remains attractive for long-term purchases.
- As announced last week, the middle of the range, located between €28,900 and €30,500 ($34,500 and $36,500), is an intervention zone for sellers. Those who wanted to reduce their risk a bit could take small profits in this area. We see this June 30 a rejection of the price in contact with this zone. We must now wait for the price to rebound again and then end the day above $36,500 to get a signal of a bullish continuation. Note that tonight there is both a monthly and a quarterly close on the charts that could cause volatility. To confirm a full recovery by buyers, the price needs to break the top of the range, around €33,200/$34,600 ($40,000/$42,000).
- If the trend deteriorates further, remember that the level between €22,100 and €23,000 ($27,000 and $28,000) is the ultimate support to hold in order to preserve the long term bull market. However, this is not the most likely scenario at this time.
The Coinhouse reccomendation :
Buy on break
- Ethereum’s (ETH) price is still more volatile than Bitcoin, both up and down. The asset is gaining 15% over a week to trade around €1,810 ($2,150) on June 30. Despite the marginal low on June 22, Ethereum’s price has held the bottom of its range at €1,480 ($1,800), which was an attractive buying area for the long term as we reported.
- This June 30, Ethereum’s price is hitting the middle of its range between €1,800 and €1,880 ($2,200 and $2,300). Last week, we advised the more cautious to take partial profits on this area. It is important to watch for the next rebound in price this week. If the price were to end a day above $2,300, then this would be a buy on breakout signal. The price should then head to the top of its range in place since May 19, located around €2,460 ($3,000). Breaking this range from above would definitely restart the underlying uptrend.
The Coinhouse reccomendation :
- Aave, one of DeFi’s flagship assets, has suffered a lot in this market drop. Nevertheless, it is back on very interesting price areas for long-term investment. It gained +13% this week to settle at €193 ($230) on June 30. It is advisable to remain cautious on this asset as long as the trend has not returned to the upside on the whole market. We now have an identified support to hold: the $170-$180 area. A return of the price to the $205-$215 range may represent an interesting buying opportunity to play a more consistent rebound. But we should not hold any buy positions if the price breaks through $170 for a long time. Breaking back above $280, which has long served as support, would be a very positive sign for Aave’s trend.
Tops & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)
1- Ethereum Classic (ETC) : +61%
2- Internet Computer (ICP): +41%
3- Shiba Inu (SHIB): +38%
1- Theta Fuel (TFUEL) : -11%
2- AMP : -3%
3- Leo Token (LEO): -2%
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