Insights > Technical analysis > Is the $30,000 level really a last stand for Bitcoin?

Is the $30,000 level really a last stand for Bitcoin?

10 June 2021

temps de lecture 5 minutes

avatar-auteur Julien Moretto

A wind of panic blew again at the beginning of the week on the cryptocurrency market. Negative news stories have multiplied, contributing to undermining investor sentiment. Yet Bitcoin remains in its range between €24,500 and €32,7000 ($30,000 and $40,000) and is trading this June 10 around €30,800 ($37,000). There is no doubt that the $30,000 support, which held during the heavy fall on May 19, is important, but it should not necessarily be seen as a last bastion. We will see in our detailed technical analysis that the $30,000 level is of interest to buyers and that another price level slightly below it is also likely to be of interest.

In any case, prices rebounded on Wednesday, June 9, showing that buyers are defending current price levels. To counteract the flow of bad news around mining restrictions in China or even a possible speech by US President Joe Biden on the link between Bitcoin and cyber-attacks at the G7 summit this weekend, one should keep an eye on some statistics: the biggest Bitcoin wallets are not selling and continue to bet on long-term price appreciation. Furthermore, an observation of the cryptocurrency derivatives platforms shows that the majority sentiment in the market is rather bearish, and that a number of speculators are still betting on its decline. So many players would be forced to buy back their positions in a hurry if a more significant rebound were to occur in the next few days.

Ethereum held up better than Bitcoin last week. But it looks like the rebound that is starting could put Bitcoin back in the lead in terms of performance. To do this, we monitor other data for our clients, such as the dominance of Bitcoin and the price behavior of Ethereum versus Bitcoin. This is done in order to arbitrate the portfolios as best as possible. There is nothing special to report about altcoins, which remain mostly correlated to Bitcoin movements. Note the good behavior of Solana whose price remains high during this corrective phase.

In any case, given the sharp rise at the beginning of the year, the bull market is not technically invalidated and we remain in very interesting price zones for long-term investments in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. The news of El Salvador passing a law to make Bitcoin a legal tender in their country is a small revolution, which of course needs to be moderated at this point, but could well spread if the inflationary problems become widespread and last over time. Recent news around the MicroStrategy company also tends to show that institutional investors are still very interested in getting exposed to crypto-currencies. In short, the ambient pessimism of the last few days on the market is to be put into perspective.

  • According to CoinGecko, the market capitalization falls slightly but remains around 1700 billion
  • Bitcoin’s dominance is finally rising again, to 41.6% market share from 40.5% last week.
  • The best performance of the top 50 is attributed to Theta Fuel (Theta) with +55% over one week.

We invite you to discover our video analysis (in french and dated June 8):

Bitcoin (BTC)

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Buy

  • Bitcoin is down 2% on the week and is trading around €30,800 ($37,000) on June 10. We are still seeing price fluctuations within the $30,000-$40,000 range. The price has broken out of last week’s compression triangle from below, but we have not seen a clear takeover by sellers. On the contrary, the area between €24,600 and €26,200 ($30,000 and $32,000) bounced the price during the day on June 8, and we now have a chart pattern that makes a continuation of this bounce very likely in the near term. If you are not too exposed to the market, this area is therefore interesting for long-term buying with part of your capital. Be careful though: the market remains weak.
  • We recommend holding on to some of your capital in case the price goes lower, especially below $30,000. If such a scenario occurs, there is no need to panic at first. There is still a potentially interesting buying zone: the one between €22,100 and €23,000 ($27,000 and $28,000). We will wait to see if this zone offers real buying signals if the price comes into contact with it.
  • In case the rebound continues, we will be looking at the top of our range around €31,100 / €32,800 ($38,000 / $40,000) to take partial profits. Higher up, the other area to watch for sellers to regain control will be between $44,000 and $47,000, but we are still far from that scenario.

Ethereum (ETH)

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Buy on support

  • Ethereum’s (ETH) volatility has been shrinking relative to Bitcoin in recent days. Although the asset held up better last week, it is appreciating less well than Bitcoin on this early rebound. Ethereum is losing 6% over a week to trade around €2,100 ($2,550) on June 10. It is moving in a rectangular range that allows for a clear delineation of support and resistance areas to intervene.
  • First of all, we see that the middle of this range causes price rebounds, so the area between 1,800 and €1,880 (2,200 and $2,300) is favourable to make some purchases. Nevertheless, it is necessary to keep some capital in case the decline becomes more important. In this case, buying the bottom of the range between $1,800 and $1,900 remains favourable, provided of course that there is a minimal reaction of the price to its contact. Conversely, the top of the range, in the price zone between €2,460 and €2,750 ($3,000 and $3,350) remains an area to take partial profits. Volatility on Ethereum should remain moderate as long as the price remains in this range.

Cosmos (ATOM)

The Coinhouse recommendation :
Buy on support

  • Cosmos (ATOM) is down -10% this week to trade around €11.20 ($13.60) on June 10. Like many altcoins, this asset fell a lot during the day on May 19. It is now stabilizing within a range that we can easily identify on the chart above. The middle of this range, around $11.50, acts as an intermediate support and can be considered as a partial buying zone. If the trend deteriorates further, the support and polarity zone, between $8 and $10, will be another interesting buying zone. Below these levels, we will stop looking at ATOM’s price. If the price rises again, we will sell a small portion of the long positions at the top of the range between $16 and $18. If the price breaks through this resistance, the underlying trend will become bullish again.

Tops & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)


Tops

1- Theta (TFUEL) : +58%
2- AMP: +55%
3- Solana (SOL): +38%


Flops

1- Internet Computer (ICP) : -24%
2- Klaytn (KLAY): -20%
3- Avalanche (AVAX) : -20%

All information in this article is provided for informational purposes only, although it has been compiled from reputable and reliable sources. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell digital assets, nor does it constitute an offer to provide services in respect of digital assets, nor does it constitute advice, inducement or recommendation to deal in such digital assets. It constitutes simple information that is under the user’s absolute control. We inform you that if you choose to invest in digital assets, you must be aware of our general terms and conditions of sale (https://bit.ly/2FGW2ek) and accept the various risks listed and defined on our legal warning page (https://bit.ly/3c4sQKc)

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