Bitcoin is loosing ground again this week, down by 7%, at €7250 ($8000) on October 16th. Technical analysis remains bearish since the strong drop which occured on September 24. Only a few altcoins, such as XRP and BNB, react better by remaining globally stable over the week. The Bitcoin chart must go back above the pivotal level of €8,200 to €8,400 ($9,100 to $9400) to regain a bullish sentiment.
- According to CoinMarketCap, market capitalisation is down slightly: $217 billion from $223 billion last week.
- The “dominance” of Bitcoin over the market is stable at 66.5%.
- Volumes are very low and we seem to be entering a new phase of compression with less volatility.
- The price of some altcoins against Bitcoin, such as XRP, BNB or ZRX, tend to confirm their uptrend reversal.
- Things are not getting any better for Facebook’s Libra project. eBay, Visa, Mastercard and Stripe are leaving.
We invite you to discover our complete analysis in video (in French):
- Bitcoin is still under a bearish influence this week. The 200-day moving average, currently around €7850 ($8,750), clearly rejected the price on October 11.
- To confirm a bullish reversal, we need an uptrend and then a break of the resistance from €8200 to €8400€ ($9100 to $9400). A daily close above $9400 would be a buy signal. The downtrend line from the high of 2019 is now merged with these levels. We advise to wait until the chart to go back to these levels.
- If the next impulse is bearish again, then the intermediate support of €7100 ($7700) may be in danger. The next zone which could act as a support is located between €6550 and €6800 ($7200 and $7500).
- The momentum (MACD) is weak because the bull cross of its moving averages did not result in a significant price increase. Beware of the next bear cross of the MACD moving averages.
- Ethereum also suffered a downtrend during the last seven days with -10%, at €158 ($174) on October 16.
- We advise to hold this week and not to buy more ETH because the price is doing sideways on the support zone from €145 to €160 ($160 to $180).
- The 50-day moving average is acting as a resistance. The real confirmation of a bullish reversal on ETH will be a break of the former €212 ($236) resistance.
- A daily close with volumes below €145€ ($160) will be a sell signal
Buy on break
- Ripple (XRP) is one of the altcoins that shows a potential start of a bullish reversal against Bitcoin. On a daily basis, the chart is making higher highs.
- The range around 3200 satoshis was broken up on October 7, following months of trading below this level.
- An aggressive buy entry would be a buy of XRP during a pullback on this upper range located around 3100 to 3200 satoshis.
- XRP’s medium-to-long-term bullish reversal is not confirmed until the chart goes back above the significant pivotal level of 4000 to 4200 satoshis, which had been used several times as a support in the past. A break up of the 4200 satoshis would be a less risky buy signal.
Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)
1- 0x (ZRX) : +10,32%
2- Huobi Token (HT) : +9,60%
3- Dogecoin (DOGE) : +7,32%
1- Chainlink (LINK) : -17,90%
2- Lisk (LSK) : -13,43%
3- OmiseGo (OMG) : -13,11%
Hot crypto news
- BPIFrance invests in Acinq. The French startup Acinq is specialised in the development regarding the Lightning Network. It is currently completing its second round of funding with €7 million. BPI France invests €1 million in the capital. This is the first time that the public group has invested in the Blockchain ecosystem.
- Will the Libra project led by the giant Facebook be launched? Paypal announced its release from the project last week. eBay, Visa, Mastercard, Stripe and Mercado Pago are also fleeing this week. The launch is still planned for 2020, but regulatory difficulties are accumulating. Is the US government lobbying?
- The G7 believes that stablecoins present a potential risk to the global financial system. However, the G20 had considered that cryptocurrencies were not a threat at the beginning of the year. According to the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, stablecoins pose a regulatory challenge. The many advantages of stablecoins are not mentioned. Ask the Argentinians the question.
- The bitcoin ETF proposed by Bitwise was rejected by the SEC. It had to provide a financial instrument regulated according to the Bitcoin price. This was the last hope for a Bitcoin ETF in the short term, after VanEck last month. The SEC fears market manipulation and artificial transaction volumes.
- The SEC is putting obstacles in Telegram’s way. The SEC launched an emergency measure and obtained a prohibition order against two entities behind Telegram’s fundraising. It considers that the GRAM token is a securities that has been sold without the regulator’s consent. 1 billion GRAMs were sold to 39 American buyers for 1.7 billion USD. The company had undertaken to reimburse investors if the tokens were not distributed by October 31. Wait and see…
- The number of Bitcoin addresses with more than 1000 BTCs has been rising since the end of 2018. This indicator, which is often interpreted as optimistic, can be misleading. Are there more large portfolios entering the market? Or very large portfolios that create smaller ones? Individuals? Institutional? Marketplaces? It’s hard to say.
- A Binancecoin FTE is created on SIX, Switzerland’s largest stock exchange. FTEs, for “Exchange Traded Products”, reproduce the valuation of an underlying asset in the same way. SIX already has two FTEs Bitcoin and Ethereum. Under the ABNB ticker, it is the first FTE to be backed by an ERC20 token.
- UNICEF now accepts cryptoassets donations. The organisation hopes to attract new donors and improve the transparency of donations.
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