Insights > Technical analysis > Bitcoin needs to break above $12,500 to confirm a new uptrend

Bitcoin needs to break above $12,500 to confirm a new uptrend

7 August 2019

Temps de lecture 5 minutes

Julien Moretto

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Week of bullish recovery on Bitcoin, up to 28% in a few days on August 6. Bitcoin is trading at $12,000 (€10,700) on August 7. The important zone to watch is the one between $11,900 and $12,500. As long as the price of Bitcoin does not break up this level, we could see a longer correction. The next few days will be decisive and the break aboce $12,500 will certainly lead to new highs in 2019.

CoinMarketCap data shows market capitalisation rising to $302 billion from $269 billion seven days ago. The market psychology is the same for weeks: Bitcoin dominates it, with altcoins generating less profit, except for a few.

Trading volumes are increasing a little this week and are back to the $20 billion mark traded on Bitcoin in recent days. However, this is not comparable to the volumes above 30 billion observed in June. The dominance of Bitcoin is still increasing and now represents 68% of the market capitalisation. Tezos (XTZ) and Monero (XMR) are the only two notable altcoins that are doing well this week with increases of 17% and 14% respectively.

We invite you to discover our complete analysis in video (in french):


Bitcoin chart

Coinhouse recommendation: 
Hold / Buy on zone

The $11,000 (€9900) pivot we identified last week was broken up, causing the price to accelerate to around $12,000 earlier this week. However, the $12,300 (€10,900) rejected the price and a bearish movement may be on a start.

The area between $11,900 and $12,500 will be decisive because it corresponds to the upper limit of the slightly bearish channel in which we have been trading since the highest level of Bitcoin in 2019 at $13,900. The $12,500 / $12,600 also corresponds to the 1.618 Fibonacci’s extension level since the bounce at $9,100: if we break up this level, then the price movement initiated since July 17 can no longer be a correction but will be the beginning of a new, longer-term uptrend. So, the crossing of $12,500 will be a buy signal.

On the other hand, if the price falls back below the $11,000 pivot, it will be a sell signal and a longer correction will become likely. A crop at the $9,000 support, and even to the lower limit of the bearish channel, currently around $8,000, is possible and will represent a medium to long term buy opportunity.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum chart

Coinhouse recommendation: 
Wait / Buy on zone

The situation is way less bullish on Ethereum, which only gained a maximum of 13% at the beginning of the week compared to its value on July 31. Ethereum is trading at $226 (€202) on August 7. Nothing really new compared to last week, the resistance at $236 (€212) has not been broken yet. A break above this level will be a buy signal on Ethereum. Especially since the 50-day moving average is now in this area.

Volumes remain low. Ethereum could drop further. An interesting buy zone for medium to long-term perspectives would then be the one between $160 and $180 (€145 and €160) that matches Fibonacci extension levels and volumes. For now, Ethereum continues to suffer from the dominance of Bitcoin on the market, as do the majority of Altcoins.

Tezos (XTZ)

Tezos chart

Coinhouse recommendation: 

Tezos (XTZ) is one of the few altcoins that are performing this week. It is up 43% since July 30 and is trading around $1.45 (€1.29) on August 7.

Tezos’ performance at the beginning of 2019 was already impressive, rising from $0.35 to nearly $2 in May. Since then, the asset has corrected to form a solid support around $0.85. A sharp increase occurred on July 30 and Tezos is now just below the $1.50 level. A bullish scenario for new buys on Tezos would be a consolidation and the price going back to the $1.10 to $1.15 zone, corresponding to a previous support tested in early May and pull back on the 50-day moving average.

However, it is possible that the price may consolidate laterally below the $1.50 resistance. In this case, a daily close above this resistance will be a buy signal on Tezos. Overall, the indicators are currently well oriented on this asset, which should generate interesting gains if Bitcoin continues to rise too.

Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)


1- Tezos (XTZ) : +17,96%
2- Bitcoin (BTC) : +17,93%
3- Monero (XMR) : +15,06%


1- Nano : -13,57%
2- Cardano (ADA) : -11,16%
3- Basic Attention Token (BAT): -8,46%

Hot crypto news

The trade war between the United States and China could explain the new rise in Bitcoin.
This is what some financial analysts and experts think about this topic. Indeed, a negative correlation can be observed between Bitcoin and the main stock markets since July 31. Since then, between the FED cuting rates and the devaluation of the Yuan, traditional markets are dropping while Bitcoin is bouncing sharply.

The second Litecoin halving took place this week. 
The monetary issuance decreased from 25 to 12.5 LTC per block.
In theory, a decrease in supply means an increase in the price for equal demand. However, the market had already anticipated this event in recent months. So there was no sudden movement in the price this week. In May 2020, it will be Bitcoin’s turn to go from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block.

Walmart files a patent that suggests a stablecoin project.
The American food giant is actively exploring blockchain technologies. 54 patents have been filed so far. A new patent suggests that Walmart is exploring the idea of launching its stablecoin. After Libra on Facebook, interest in digital assets is growing exponentially.

The US central bank unveils FedNow. 
It is an instant payment service and clearing house open 24/7. Banks across the United States could thus offer real-time payments. The service is scheduled for 2023/2024. In Europe, the ECB is ahead of the Fed with the SEPA Instant protocol. Cryptocurrencies have been offering this type of service for 10 years now.

Liquid Bitcoin, Blockstream’s Bitcoin sidechain, adds Tether to its platform. 
It is now possible to perform atomic swaps between Tether and L-BTC. L-BTC is the native asset of Liquid Bitcoin, backed by real BTC. The idea is to trade without going through a marketplace, so at a very low cost.

Lightning news:
Ethereum exceeds 200,000 smart contracts on its Blockchain, proving the popularity of its technology.
US Senator Mike Crapo admits that even if the United States wanted to, it could not ban Bitcoin.
The number of miners in Bitcoin continues to increase, with a mining capacity of 78.99 EH/s never reached before.

Investors’ attention is drawn to the fact that the content of the articles does not constitute investment advice. Investing in cryptoassets involves a risk of total capital loss. For more information, please do not hesitate to contact our support team.

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