We are once again witnessing a surprising week in the cryptocurrency market. After several days of decline, Bitcoin seemed to lose the important support of €25,000 ($30,000) on the afternoon of June 22. But that was without counting on the reaction of buyers who quickly pushed the price back above $30,000. After this price action, which was rather positive for the long-term uptrend, Bitcoin is still down nearly 15% on the week and is trading around €28,500 ($34,000) on June 23.
The news and market sentiment was particularly negative in recent days, especially with China’s crackdown on cryptocurrencies. As is often the case, the market took advantage of this environment to find a potential low point and thwart majority sentiment. We’ll see in our detailed analysis below that while $30,000 is important, there is still a long-term buying zone located between €22,600 and €23,500 ($27,000 and $28,000). On the other hand, a sustained drop below this level would seriously jeopardize the long-term bull market.
Since June 22 at 5pm, the price has shown a nice bullish reaction. However, this is not the time to rush: this week is full of events, with important expiries of options and futures contracts by Friday. These expiries do not seem to worry the biggest bitcoin portfolios, which have not sold since mid-May. Instead, these large portfolios lightened their positions between February and April, when the price was on highs.
On the altcoins side, the declines have been more significant, sometimes going beyond -50%. In two months, some assets have lost around 80%, a real purge following the euphoria of the last few months, especially around DeFi and NFTs.Bitcoin’s capitalization relative to the overall market continues to rise. We continue to believe that Bitcoin has a good chance of leading the market in terms of performance if we are on the cusp of a new bull market.
Finally, on the macroeconomic front, the fear that gripped the stock markets following last week’s U.S. central bank meeting quickly dissipated. US indices are already back to their highs and a recent speech by Governor Jerome Powell seems to have reassured investors about the ability to control the ongoing inflation wave. The decorrelation between the traditional markets and the cryptoasset market is still relevant.
- According to CoinGecko, the market capitalization falls to 1400 billion, against 1700 last week.
- Bitcoin’s dominance is finally rising again, to 45.5% market share from 44% last week.
- The best performance of the top 50 is attributed to LEO Token (LEO) with +8.5% over one week.
We invite you to discover our video analysis (in french and dated June 22):
The Coinhouse recommendation :
- Bitcoin is still down 15% on the week and is trading around €28,500 ($34,000) on June 23. Nevertheless, the June 22 rebound should be considered. After a marginal low below $30,000, the Bticoin price rebounded sharply. It is too early to tell if the correction that has been going on since May is over, but it is encouraging. The price zone between €24,600 and €26,200 ($30,000 and $32,000) is still an interesting area for long-term buying.
- It is important to note that the middle of the range, located between €28,900 and €30,500 ($34,500 and $36,500) now forms a volume node. Sellers may try to reject the price on contact with this area. Those who want to reduce their risk a bit can take small profits in this area. If the price ends a day above $36,500, it will be another bullish signal. Buying can be done at that point. The next target will then be the top of the range, around 33,200 / €34,600 (40,000 / $42,000). If the $42,000 level is broken on the upside, the return of a major bullish cycle will become very likely.
- Now less likely, the short scenario cannot be ruled out before the end of this week. The level between 22,100 and €23,000 (27,000 and $28,000) will absolutely have to hold to preserve the long term bull market.
The Coinhouse recommendation :
Buy on support
- Ethereum (ETH) has suffered more than Bitcoin and is down 22% in a week to trade around €1,675 ($2,000) on June 23. It is worth remaining more cautious about altcoins in general, given the percentages of decline on most of them. Even though it made a marginal low on June 22, we can say that Ethereum’s price is holding its range between €1,480 and €2,460 ($1,800 to $3,000).
- Last week we talked about the possibility of a buyback at the bottom of the range between 1,500 and €1,590 (1,800 and $1,900). The reaction of the price to its contact is clear. The next challenge for Ethereum is now to continue this rebound and move into the mid-range area between €1,800 and €1,880 ($2,200 and $2,300). It will be advisable to be cautious in this price area and take partial profits if you have invested at the bottom of the range. To fully restart a bullish trend, the area to be crossed is the top of the range located around €2,460 ($3,000).
The Coinhouse recommendation :
- Litecoin (LTC) is a good example of the sharp decline suffered by altcoins since May. The asset is down 27% this week to trade around €109 ($130) on June 23. Beyond yesterday’s rebound, what is more annoying for Litecoin is the clear loss of support between €113 and €121 ($135 and $145) which had held the price back in May. The trend is therefore more degraded than on Bitcoin and Ethereum. At this point, we remain on hold on Litecoin to see if buyers come back more strongly. We would need a quick reintegration above the $135-$145 support to regain a bullish sentiment. Buying could then be sought to attempt a larger rebound to the pivotal zone around $215-$230.
Tops & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)
1- LEO Token (LEO) : +8,5%
2- Theta (TFUEL) : -6%
3- Bitcoin (BTC): -15%
1- Internet Computer (ICP) : -47%
2- OKB : -34%
3- Polkadot (DOT): -34%
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