Technical analysis

Bitcoin over the $8000 mark, a make-or-break time

Julien Moretto – 29 Apr 2020

With the end of the month in sight and the halving of Bitcoin in about ten days, the next few weeks promise to be exciting in the crypto market. On April 23, Bitcoin broke a major resistance at €6,600 ($7,200). We had said that this would be a buy signal that would pave the way for the €7,400 ($8,000). The price is there now, with Bitcoin gaining 21% over a week and trading around €7,700€ ($8,200). This is a potential reversal zone compared to the last phase of decline we experienced between mid-February and mid-March. It wouldn’t be surprising that some market players look for sales here, unless the fomo is already taking over the market

Altcoins are not to be left out, in a market where all the cryptocurrencies remain globally correlated and where Bitcoin is leading the way. Ethereum (ETH) performed well with +24% in seven days. Assets such as Tezos (XTZ) or Cardano (ADA) are performing above 30%. Less capitalized Altcoins such as Hive or Digibyte have stratospheric performances of +300% and 87% respectively. The end of April therefore ends in the green.

But beware, the correlation between the crypto market and the equity markets remains very strong. The S&P500 index is also in a potential reversal zone, all in a special economic and financial context. In view of the latest market movements, if the stock markets start to fall again, they risk dragging the crypto market down. Analysis.

  • According to CoinGecko, market capitalization is up sharply to $240 billion, up from $201 billion seven days ago.
  • Bitcoin dominance remains stable at around 63%.
  • Cardano (ADA) offers the best performance of the week in the top 20: +44%.
  • The volumes of the CME Bitcoin futures contracts have been exploding lately. The total volume has even exceeded $500 million in one day. Institutional interest seems to be materializing.

We invite you to discover our full analysis in video (recorded on april 28, in french) :

Bitcoin (BTC)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Partial profit taking

  • Nice 21% increase over the week for Bitcoin. For anyone who bought Bitcoin on our last identified support levels (on the $5,800 or $6,500) or even lower, we recommend taking partial profits. Last week, we advised you to wait before taking a position on Bitcoin.
  • The resistance of the €6600, ($7200) was broken and the price quickly moved, as we expected, into the €7,300 ($8,000) zone. We must remain vigilant in this zone which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the big February/March drop, and also to a Fibonacci extension level (refer to the video for details). To sum up, this is an interesting zone for sellers. If we observe any reversal signals in this zone, the price should first return to the last support formed, i.e. the €6600, ($7,200) zone.
  • We are only taking partial profits at this stage as it is also possible that the market will enter a bullish excess and break out of the $8,000 range and then target the $7,800 ($8,500) zone. In this scenario, we will start buying again when the price offers retracement.

Ethereum (ETH)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Keep

  • Ethereum takes full advantage of the rise of the last few days to win 24% over one week. ETH quoted around 190€ (209$) on April 29. A good progression from the supports we had identified at $115 and then $150.
  • There is still a bullish potential on Ethereum to reach the really resistant chartist zone, located around €200 ($225). This price level also corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the big February/March drop. We will therefore have to think about taking partial profits when the price reaches this zone. But for the moment we are holding.
  • Be careful, the scenario of an immediate reversal cannot be excluded. If Bitcoin starts to show signs of weakness, it is very likely that Ethereum will follow it in its bearish retracement. In that case, you’ll need to watch the chartist levels of $160 and then $140 ($180 and then $160) to act as a support and a rebound in the price.

Tezos (XTZ)

Coinhouse’s Recommendation : 
Partial profit taking

  • Tezos (XTZ) continues to impress on the market, up 29% in one week and trading at €2.56 ($2.80) on April 29.
  • The XTZ price is also coming in on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the big February/March decline. This price zone between €2.50 and €2.65 ($2.70 and $2.90) should catch the interest of sellers. We therefore advise to take partial profits, given the impressive rise traversed by XTZ in recent weeks. If the reversal signals are confirmed, the price should return to the pivotal range of $1.90 to $2.05 ($2.10 to $2.20), which will then be a preferred price level for a rebound and a resumption of the uptrend.
  • It is not impossible, although less likely, that the uptrend will gain strength and the price will break the resistance of the 2.65€ ($2.90). In such a case, we will try to position ourselves on price retracements when buying.

Top & flops of the week (top 50 marketcap)


Tops

1- Hive (ZEC) : +300%
2- Digibyte (XTZ) : +87%
3- Cardano (ADA) : +44%


Flops

1- LEo Token (LEO) : +0,3%
2- ZCash (ZEC) : +7,8%
3- Chainlink (LINK) : +8,9%

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